Climate Action Network Int. 2014 climate position
The CAN International position statement on climate change is the best ever for a number of indispensable reasons:
Large externalized costs of carbon pollution are recognized CAN Int. 'Fossil fuels have many unaccounted for external costs that accrue throughout the supply chain and the life cycle. These costs result from air and water pollution from the associated mining, combustion, and waste disposal; significant freshwater use; permanent land disfiguration; infringement of human rights; and worker and public health and safety impacts'. The IMF treats these costs as subsidies. They amount to a trillion dollars, largely applicable to long developed States. .
- It is an EMERGENCY RESPONSE calling for governments to reduce their emissions within 12-18 months, which is based soundly on the science. There is no other way now to limit warming to the catastrophic 2ºC (without planetary geo-engineering). It calls for the 1.5ºC limit, being considered since a 2010 UN Cancun Climate Conference agreement to replace the 2.0C target (disastrous for our planet). The expert team report, which advised 2C is too dangerous and the 1.5C option must be kept open, was released by the UNFCCC May 2015
It calls for:
- An emissions target of zero carbon (CO2), which according to the science is the only way to stabilize global temperature or ocean acidification.
- The total replacement of all fossil fuel energy by 2050, resulting in a world economy run 100% by clean renewable energy. The science established long ago that all world energy use can be replaced several times over by today's renewable energy technologies. This is the only way zero carbon emissions can be achieved.
- A limit to global warming of under 1.5ºC, which might avoid planetary catastrophe.
- A phase out of fossil fuel subsidies ($2.9 trillion, IMF 2013) with externalities included as subsidies.
- An end to deforestation by 2020 and has included (2012) drivers of deforestation and forest degradation.
- Provision of finance to developing countries is a pre-requisite for many developing countries before they embark towards this transition. So long as the long developed (Annex 1) states continue failing to deliver on their agreed to (UN FCCC) provisions of technology and financial assistance they are an obstruction to a new UN treaty.
There are two UN climate negotiation essentials not clearly included in the CAN International position, though they are already the policy of global civil society. There has to be a price put on carbon pollution, which is inferred in the CAN International 2014 position. 9. The UN climate convention requires safe limits to atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, and global civil society agrees on a limit of under 350 ppm. For a position submitted to the UN climate negotiations the 350ppm CO2 target may be specified by CAN Int.
The CAN Int. position does not give a specific price on carbon pollution, The current research recommends a starting carbon pollution fee of $30-100 /t carbon starting from 2015 increasing to $82-260/tCO2 in 20 years.
Sept 2014 Friends of the Earth Int. call for immediate government action.
Sept 2014 US CERES Declaration America's great economic opportunity.
However, because most governments recognize only the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as their source of climate science that is used for policy and international negotiations, we must also consider the best-case IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) 2014 emissions scenario, which is called RCP2.6. This is the only scenario that might remain below 2.0ºC by 2100, and stay below 2ºC after 2100. It delays emissions reduction until 2020 and hence requires prolonged CO2 removal from the air after 2050. In fact the AR5 RCP2.6 scenario is strong support for the 2014 CAN Int. position.
So there is global support for emissions to decline from 1 to 4 years, with the evidence showing it must be in one year.
Our goal is to promote and attract support for the CAN International position, because it gives us a hope of staying within a temperature increase that we can survive.
Missing from the CAN Int 2014 policy statement is a limit to atmospheric concentrations- though all civil society NGOs support the 350ppm Limit The 1992 UNFCC requires atmospheric GHG concentrations to be limited for climate safety.
This website is part of a global climate change communication project explaining the all-important policy responses for climate-concerned people to call for through their government channels. From August of 2014 we aim to inform all world leaders and leading world institutions and NGOs of the measures must be implemented by the end of 2015 to avert planetary catastrophe. .
CAN International shows us that global climate change can be mitigated faster and more effectively than is generally assumed. A total of six greenhouse emissions can be rapidly reduced. These are, in order of their contribution to global climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (soot), methane (CH4), tropospheric (ground level) ozone, halocarbons (manufactured chemicals used in some industries), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Rapidly reducing all six greenhouse emissions is not much harder than only focusing on CO2. The fact that black carbon is second only to CO2 and its effects stop as soon as it is reduced, is very good news for mitigation. We can cut other (non-CO2) emissions much more than the science has assumed in global warming projections.
The 1.5ºC global warming limit, which is still extremely dangerous is just feasible with immediate action ( Climate Analytics Hare 2014)
The plan for zero CO2 emissions with no fossil fuel energy, by 2050 or sooner- is feasible within 25 years (Jacobson, Delucchi 2011).
Approved by All World Governments
The IPCC 5th assessment best-case scenario, RCP2.6, calls for emissions to decline by 2020.
It is clear from the IPCC AR5 that the 2.0º target is a target for global climate catastrophe and that the real danger limit is 1.0ºC (Hansen and 16 other experts 2014).
On the 2ºC or 1.5ºC limit
Under the 2010 Cancun Agreements, there is a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expert panel reviewing the 2.0ºC target in terms of strengthening it to 1.5ºC. Over many years, many of the most vulnerable and least developed nations have been asking for below 1.5ºC for their survival.
The Guardian 1 June 2011 "Global warming should be limited to 1.5ºC, UN climate chief says ... Christiana Figueres tells carbon trading conference that the current limit of a 2ºC temperature rise is 'not enough'"
The AR5 best case RCP2.6 could limit warming to 1.5C by 2100, because the mean by 2100 warming is 1.6C. Also if the RCP2.6 emissions decline is not slowed after 2050 it would not be above 1.5C by 2100.
LETTER TO GOVERNMENTS (SAMPLE)
To my ... (level) government,
and the Secretariat of the UNFCCC
Issue: Catastrophic Global Climate Change
I write with respect to the upcoming UN climate conferences.
I agree with the the June 2014 Position Statement of the Climate Action Network International, which I believe to be true to the climate science and true to human rights. Emissions must peak in 2015 and rapidly decline. Global warming must be kept below 1.5ºC. Zero carbon emissions must be achieved by 2050, with all fossil fuel energy replaced by 100% clean renewable energy by mid-century or sooner.
I bring to your attention the fact that the only IPCC 5th assessment (2014) scenario that has the potential to stay below 2.0ºC is the best-case emissions scenario RCP2.6, in which emissions decline from 2020 and the mean warming is 1.5ºC by 2100. This mitigation scenario has been approved by all governments through the IPCC process and your government is obliged to follow it, at the very least. LONGER LETTER CONTINUES
I call on all all levels of government to immediately:
- Make greenhouse emissions reduction your top priority.
- Formally acknowledge and declare that the world is far beyond dangerous interference with the climate system according to any definition, but particularly as defined by the 1992 UN climate change convention.
- Institute immediate policies and measures for a rapid reduction of your country's greenhouse gas emissions. Already committed global climate change is the greatest threat to International Security and the security of all nations, and therefore if necessary, executive powers must be used for the reduction of national greenhouse gas emissions.
The disastrous 2.0ºC target MUST be changed to below 1.5ºC, as submitted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by the many most vulnerable nations, and now being reviewed by an expert panel. Today's climate science makes it clear that national UN emissions pledges have us on track to global climate catastrophe. Our very survival depends on all governments taking rapid action to decline their greenhouse gas emissions on an immediate-term basis..
- Support the lowering of the 2.0°C target to below 1.5°C.
Under the terms of the 1992 UN climate convention, I hold you obligated to to do everything possible to peak and decline emissions from 2015 and aim for a warming below 1.5ºC, as called for in the 2014 CAN International Position Statement.
By the IPCC AR5, approved by all national governments, I hold you obligated to act on at least the IPCC AR5 best-case scenario RCP2.6, which has emissions declining by 2020 and is at least likely to keep us below 2.0ºC by 2100, though this includes the assumption of removing and storing CO2 from the air.
I am demanding that governments rapidly terminate all fossil fuel subsidies, charge large central polluters the full costs of their pollution (through a tax, fee or levy) and promote the fastest possible increase in clean renewable energy with economic incentives.Yours truly ....
CLIMATE ACTION TO AVOID PLANETARY CATASTROPHE STILL JUST POSSIBLE-WITH IMMEDIATE ACTION!
IPCC AR5 best case scenario RCP2.6
This could also be called a global emergency response, as it calles for emissions to stop increasing right away and to decline no later than 2012.
Both plans could limit warming to 1.5C by 2100.
This best case IPCC AR5 scenario (IPCC AR5 mitigation report Working Group 3 Fig SPM 4 page 11)) is the only IPCC scenario in which the temperature increase is not above 2C by 2100 and the only one that does not keep increasing after 2100.
Though RCP2.6 is inferior to the CAN International plan on the climate science and on human rights, it has been approved by all world governments through the IPCC process and is the only mitigation science and plan that most governments will recognize.
UN Paris agreement CIEL
- A Powerful Signal but a Weak Agreement in Paris:
Global Movement for Climate Action Must Accelerate
Center for International Environmental Law
Why a Trump Presidency would dash any hope of preventing total planetary catastrophe Part One